FTP's 2008 Minnesota State Boys Hockey Tournament - Class AA Predictions

I am only predicting one round at a time.

Quarterfinals:

Game 1: Edina (26-2-0) vs. Cloquet/Esko/Carlton (15-11-2)

Section 2AA (SW Twin Cities Metro) vs. Section 7AA (Northeast Minnesota)

Regular season head-to-head results:

01/25/08 at Cloquet: Edina won 5-1

Five common 2007-2008 opponents:

vs. Duluth East

Edina won 3-1
Cloquet/E/C won 4-2
Cloquet/E/C lost 1-2
Cloquet/E/C won 6-5 in Section 7AA Semifinal

vs. Brainerd/Pillager/Pierz

Edina won 6-1
Cloquet/E/C lost 2-7
Cloquet/E/C lost 0-2

vs. Minnetonka

Edina won 4-2
Edina lost 2-3
Cloquet/E/C lost 0-4

vs. Elk River

Edina won 4-3
Cloquet/E/C won 3-0 Section 7AA Quarterfinal

vs. Grand Rapids

Edina won 3-2
Cloquet/E/C tied 2-2
Cloquet/E/C lost 2-4

Key Players:

Edina: Marshall Everson (Jr.), Anders Lee (Jr.), Zach Budish (Jr.), Joe Gleason (Sr.), Derrick Caschetta (Sr.)

Cloquet/Esko/Carlton: David Brown (Sr.), Justin Jokinen (Sr.), Oscar Carlsson (Jr.), Aaron Baker (Sr.)

First of all, congratulations to the Jacks for an impressive run during the Section 7AA playoffs. Question: where was this offense during the regular season??? Where was David Brown during the regular season???? Brown scored six goals in the Section 7AA Semifinal and Championship games. He deserved MVP status for his performance. So, why does a player with such a knack for scoring net just nine goals in 26 games prior to those two final games? I am sure Duluth East and Anoka are just as perplexed as I am. At the same time, where was Mr. Hockey candidate Justin Jokinen during the Section playoffs? Jokinen netted 21 goals during the regular season but managed only one assist during the Section 7AA playoffs.

Many, especially in the Twin Cities Metro area, believed that Edina deserved to be thought of as the top ranked team in Class AA in Minnesota this season. It is not hard to be in awe when watching the Hornets. They are impressive and opponents spend so much time trying to slow them down that they hardly have time to display any offense against them. BUT, the Hornets can be scored on. They have only shut out two opponents all season long. Cloquet has shut out four teams. Edina is so aggressive on offense that teams do find themselves with favorable odd man breaks into the Hornets zone. That was very evident against Burnsville in the Section 2AA Championship game. Edina showed dominance throughout the game but Burnsville had several good scoring chances and the Blaze forced Edina into overtime.

If the Jacks are going to have any chance against Edina, Jokinen, Brown, and Carlsson will need to score and then score again. Then, they will need to slow the Hornets down. So far, very few teams have slowed down the likes of Lee, Budish, and Everson. IF the Jacks can stop two of those three Hornet players from scoring AND if Brown, Jokinen, and Carlsson can score four or more goals for Cloquet, they may have a shot to win.

The good news: Cloquet will score more goals than they did when the two teams met the first time earlier this year. The bad news: It won't be enough to outscore a determined Edina team that has a lot to prove after last year's loss to Grand Rapids in the state quarterfinals in 2007.

Edina: 5.25 gpg | 1.89 gaa
Cloquet/E/C: 3.61 gpg | 2.89 gaa

FTP's prediction: Edina 5, Cloquet/Esko/Carlton 2
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Game 2: Benilde-St. Margaret's (25-3-0) vs. Woodbury (22-6-0)

Section 6AA (West Twin Cities Metro) vs. Section 3AA (Southeast Twin Cities Metro)

Two common 2007-2008 opponents:

vs. Cretin-Derham Hall:

Benilde-St. Margaret's won 3-2
Woodbury won 3-1
Woodbury won 2-1 in overtime

vs. Stillwater:

Benilde-St. Margaret's won 4-2
Woodbury won 4-1
Woodbury won 5-3

Key Players:

Benilde-St. Margaret's: Matt Berglund (Sr.), Steve Zierke (Sr.), Chris Student (Sr.), Blake Applehof (Sr.)

Woodbury: David Eddy (Sr.), Brandon Wigen (Sr.), Tony Pittman (Jr.), Walker Hyland (So.)

I really don't know what to expect in this game. Benilde-St. Margaret's has had a lot of attention most of the season while Woodbury came out of the shadows and has pounced hard on their opponents down the stretch. The Royals have won nine in a row including three impressive wins in the Section 3AA playoffs and including a dominating 8-2 win over Rosemount in the championship game, who was most people's pick to represent that Section in the state tournament.

This game is so difficult to predict because I'm feeling an upset might happen here. The Royals were very dominant in their Section. Yet, I cannot fully commit to taking the Royals in this game because of convincing losses to Hopkins, Blake, Andover, and Hastings. Benilde-St. Margaret's did not stumble against teams they were supposed to beat.

Benilde-St. Margaret's: 6.39 gpg | 1.61 gaa
Woodbury: 4.82 gpg | 2.39 gaa

FTP Prediction: Benilde-St. Margaret's 3, Woodbury 2
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Game 3: Roseau (28-0-0) vs. Blaine (20-8-0)

Section 8AA (Northwest Minnesota) vs. Section 5AA (Northwest Twin Cities Metro)

Regular season head-to-head results:

02/09/08 at the Baudette Classic (outdoors): Roseau won 1-0

Two common 2007-2008 opponents:

vs. Thief River Falls

Roseau won 4-2
Roseau won 7-1
Blaine won 9-3

vs. Brainerd/Pillager/Pierz

Roseau won 7-0
Blaine won 8-3

Key Players:

Roseau: Mike Lee (Jr.), Aaron Ness (Jr.), Ben Nelson (Sr.), Tyler Landman (Jr.), Adam Knochenmus (So.), Dustin Moser (Sr.), Nick Oliver (Jr.)

Blaine: Mike Schaber (Sr.), R Johnson (Sr.), S Hansen (Sr.), Danny Harper (So.)

Rematch anyone? This time the rematch between the Rams and the Bengals will be played in an atmosphere about 100 degrees warmer than when they met in early February up in frigid Baudette, MN. Roseau was able to get one puck in the net and win the game against Blaine at the Baudette Classic, 1-0.

Blaine has no trouble scoring averaging almost five goals per game. They have scored five or more goals in 17 of their 28 games this season. Roseau has scored five or more goals in 15 of their 28 games.

Here is the glaring difference between Roseau and Blaine: Roseau has shut out, allowed zero, nada, nothing, no goals against 12 of their 28 opponents. Blaine has not shut out ANYONE this season. Zero, nada, no shutouts. As a matter of fact, Blaine has been shutout twice this year. They lost 1-0 to both Roseau and Duluth East. Roseau's goals against average is less than one goal per game.

The game outside in the frigid north was a close one and, actually, that was an advantage for Blaine. The Rams would have most likely scored more in a more favorable (indoor) condition. This game may be close at the beginning but I expect the Rams to win by more than two goals.

FTP Prediction: Roseau 4, Blaine 1
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Game 4: Hill-Murray (24-3-1) vs. Lakeville South (14-11-3)

Section 4AA (North Central Twin Cities Metro) vs. Section 1AA (Southeast Minnesota)

One common 2007-2008 opponent:

vs. Minnetonka:

Hill-Murray lost 1-4
Lakeville South lost 0-6

Key Players:

Hill-Murray: Joe Phillippi (Sr.), Dan Cecka (Sr.), Ryan Furne (Jr.), Isaac Kohls (Jr.), Tyler Zepeda (Jr.), Nick Widing (Jr.)

Lakeville South: Hakan Yumusaklar (Sr.), Chris Cass (Sr.), Bill Simon (Sr.), Lukas Allen (Sr.)

Before the Section 1AA playoffs began, Lakeville South had not shutout one opponent all season. During the Section 1AA playoffs, the Cougars shutout all three opponents. Hakan Yumusaklar is a big reason why the Cougars advanced to state. Now, he'll have to stand on his head and perform an Alex Kangas to keep his team in the game against the Hill-Murray Pioneers.

Lakeville South did have a quality win outside of winning Section 1AA. They did defeat Rosemount late in the season 5-3.

It's the best scoring team in the tournament against the least scoring team, a difference of over 3 games per game.

Hill-Murray: 6.57 gpg | 1.57 gaa
Lakeville South: 3.21 gpg | 2.68 gaa

FTP Prediction: Hill-Murray 5, Lakeville South 1