And the #1 seeds are (if the season ended yesterday)

After Saturday's games, there are officially three weeks left of the regular season. Playoffs are right around the corner! Until then, here is who I think should be the #1 seed in each Section in Class AA if the regular season ended yesterday:

Section 1AA: Lakeville South
:: Head-to-head, The Cougars crushed Rochester Century 9-1 and Lakeville North 4-0.

Winona is 2-0-1 in the Section and they have a 13-2-1 overall record but they have only played four Class AA teams and they are 2-1-1 against those teams, each with a losing record.

Rochester Century has the inside track as the #2 seed with a win over Lakeville North. Lakeville North will sit as the #3 seed for now.

If Winona can upset Rochester Century in Winona on February 1st, Winona will be thrusted into the #2 spot. If not, Winona should be the #4 seed. They still have a game at Owatonna at February 4th and, even though Owatonna is down this year, I can see the Huskies win that game. Also, Winona just tied Rochester John Marshall this week. They'll play again in the final game of the season.

If Winona struggles down the stretch, Owatonna and John Marshall have a good chance to pick up the 4th and 5th seeds.

Section 2AA: Edina
:: It is too bad that Edina and Bloomington Jefferson have not and will not play each other during the regular season. It would make it easier to seed the Section.

The next best criteria would be their records against teams they both have played. The biggest one that stands out is Jefferson's 2-1 victory over Wayzata at BIG. Edina has lost twice to Wayzata, both games at Plymouth Ice Center. In Edina's favor, the Hornets defeated Burnsville 4-0 and Jefferson tied the Blaze 2-2, both games at Burnsville. Also, Edina defeated Eden Prairie in the Edina Classic at Braemar 5-3. Jefferson lost to Eden Prairie 5-3 at Eden Prairie. Jefferson has an ugly loss to Lakeville North at BIG. Bloomington Jefferson is 4-2-2 against teams in the current Class AA Top 20. Edina is 8-4-1 against those same teams. That is almost an identical winning percentage. Edina has obviously had a tougher schedule.

Edina is 2-4-2 in their last eight games. Jefferson is 5-2-1 in their last eight. Yet, Edina does not have any losses against teams with a losing record. Jefferson does. Four out of Edina's five losses have been by the top two teams in Class AA. Their other loss was to Cretin-Derham Hall. Cretin-Derham Hall is not in my top 20 but they have a winning record and are #16 in Let's Play Hockey's top 20. Unless Edina continues to have a meltdown the rest of the season, I would give them an ever-so-slight edge over Jefferson for the #1 seed mainly because of Edina's tougher schedule and because of Jefferson's very noticeable blemish against Lakeville North.

Also .. if you think Holy Angels should easily be the #3 seed, think again. Burnsville has arguably had a tougher schedule and they have only played one Class A team, 6th-ranked Mahtomedi. Burnsville lost in overtime to the Zephyrs. The Stars have played five Class A teams, one (New Prague) is in the top 20. The big loss that stands out for the Stars is the one against White Bear Lake, 6-3. The Stars are 1-4-1 against teams in the current Class AA top 20. Also, follow me here, Burnsville beat Cretin-Derham Hall at a neutral site 6-0. Edina lost to Cretin-Derham Hall at home 3-1. Edina and Academy of Holy Angels tied 4-4 at Braemar. Also, Burnsville has tied and outshot Bloomington Jefferson 2-2, 40-28 in Burnsville. Jefferson and Burnsville will play again at BIG on the final day of the regular season, 2/20. Burnsville is 7-1-1 in their last nine games. If Burnsville did not lose badly 4-0 to Edina and Hill-Murray 5-2 earlier in the year, they would have had a good shot at being the #1 seed. Burnsville has three tough games left out of seven against Eagan, Eden Prairie, and Bloomington Jefferson. The Stars also have seven games left with Shattuck-St. Mary's and Benilde-St. Margaret's as their toughest. Today, Burnsville would be my #3 seed.

Section 3AA: Eagan
:: There should be no argument that Eagan is your #1 seed for Section 3AA. They are 4-0-0 against Section 3AA teams. However, their record against teams in the Class AA top 20 outside of Section 3AA is 2-1-1. Both of their wins were overtime wins against Jefferson and Eden Prairie. Still, Eagan is the best team in a weaker Section.

After Eagan, Apple Valley, Woodbury, and Cretin-Derham Hall all have good arguments to why they should be the #2 seed in the second. Head-to-head, Apple Valley has not faced either Woodbury or Cretin. However, Woodbury has defeated Cretin 3-2.

Section 4AA: Hill-Murray
:: Again, this is a no-brainer at this point. Stillwater and White Bear Lake are the Pioneers closest contenders but they have little to no chance to steal that #1 seed away.

The Ponies are 6-0-2 in their last eight games. HOWEVER, they did lose to White Bear Lake in their first meeting this season. White Bear Lake has lost to Mounds View. Mounds View has lost to Stillwater. Stillwater has the best overall Section record but they did not face Hill-Murray at all while White Bear Lake faced Hill-Murray twice and lost twice. All three teams will face each other one more time before the regular season ends. White Bear Lake also has three big wins in their favor over Stillwater, Holy Angels, and Cretin-Derham Hall. Stillwater has also defeated Cretin-Derham Hall, by the same goal difference. If Stillwater can defeat White Bear Lake at the St. Croix Rec Center on February 4th and win at least five of their other six final games, the Ponies should be the #2 seed. Mounds View can put themselves in as the #3 seed if they can beat White Bear Lake again tomorrow, Saturday, at Aldrich. Actually, Mounds View has a tougher schedule in its seven remaining games and could shock everyone if they can pull out victories against White Bear Lake, Woodbury, Stillwater, Forest Lake, and North St. Paul.

Tartan should be the #5 seed as they have beaten North St. Paul head-to-head, 5-2. They will face each other again though on February 4th. Neither Tartan nor North St. Paul have beaten a Class AA team with a winning record.

Section 5AA: Blaine
:: Blaine has done just enough to beat their Section 5AA opponents to put them in the driver's seat. The Bengals are 7-0-2 in their Section. They have beaten Osseo twice, each time by one goal. They have tied Centennial and Maple Grove. Since they took care of Osseo, they only now need to worry about their rematches with Centennial (02/13) and Maple Grove (02/18) to secure the #1 seed in the Section.

The #2 seed will be an interesting fight. If the season ended yesterday, Maple Grove would be the #2 seed based solely on their head-to-head win against Centennial. Both teams have similar overall records.

Maple Grove is 1-1-1 against Blaine, Centennial, Osseo. The win came against Centennial, the loss to Osseo, and the tie to Blaine. If Maple Grove can beat or tie Centennial again on February 6th, Maple Grove will be the #2 seed. If they beat Blaine and Centennial, Maple Grove will be the #1 seed.

Centennial is 1-1-1 against Blaine, Maple Grove, and Osseo. The win came against Osseo, the loss to Maple Grove, and the tie to Blaine. If Centennial defeats Maple Grove, they'll be the #2 seed. If they beat Blaine and Maple Grove, Centennial will be #1 seed.

Osseo is 1-3-0 against Blaine, Maple Grove, and Centennial. Osseo still controls most of their destiny to be the #2 seed if they can beat Maple Grove again and then also beat Centennial by 2 or more goals. Both teams would also have to lose to Blaine. If that complete scenario does not happen, they are a lock at #4 if they can beat Champlin Park on Saturday.

Section 6AA: Minnetonka
:: The Skippers are THE #1 over the rest of the 71 teams in the state.

The #2 seed will be another headache to figure out. I have Wayzata as the #2 team in Class AA. However, one of Wayzata's two losses were to Benilde-St. Margaret's, 4-3 at Benilde's home rink at St. Louis Park Rec Center. Wayzata outshot Benilde-St. Margaret's in that game 37 to 26. I think if the two teams met again on neutral ice that Wayzata would win. Wayzata beat Edina twice. Benilde-St. Margaret's lost to Edina 6-3. Wayzata also beat Centennial 4-2 while Centennial defeated Benilde-St. Margaret's 7-2. So, how do the Section committees base the criteria? Does head-to-head record trump their records against like opponents? Do they even use criteria?

I did NOT forget Eden Prairie. Eden Prairie has a case to be thrown into the #2 spot. They defeated Bloomington Jefferson 5-3. Wayzata 2nd loss was to Bloomington Jefferson 2-1. However, back to Edina, Wayzata defeated Edina twice while Eden Prairie lost to Edina 5-3. Neither Wayzata or Benilde-St. Margaret's play Eden Prairie.

Eden Prairie has not lost to a team outside of the top 20 and neither has Wayzata. Eden Prairie is 5-3-0 against top 20 teams. Wayzata is 6-2-1 against current top 20 teams. Wayzata has also defeated Moorhead twice and Woodbury, both teams that were and could arguably be in the top 20. Benilde-St. Margaret's is 2-2-2 against teams in the top 20. BSM also has a loss against Cretin-Derham Hall.

If I were to seed them, Wayzata would be #2, Eden Prairie #3, Benilde-St. Margaret's #4, Hopkins #5.

Section 7AA: Elk River/Zimmerman
:: I am not comfortable with Elk River/Zimmerman as the #1 seed. However, since they defeated Duluth East at home 3-2, and even though they were outshot 33-15, the Elks have to get the nod. As of today, both Duluth East and the Elks have identical records at 11-5-2. The Elks have no losses in the Section and Duluth East has only lost to Elk River/Zimmerman.

Andover (12-4-1) has a good shot at taking over the #2 seed if they can go up and defeat Duluth East at Heritage Arena tonight, Friday. They also have a shot at the #1 seed if they beat Duluth East and beat Elk River/Zimmerman in Elk River on February 4th. But, since Andover lost 6-3 against Elk River/Zimmerman early in the season, they in turn would have to beat the Elks by 3 or more goals to have a shot at the #1 seed.

Forest Lake has a nice record but they just have not beaten anybody. They are pretty solid though as the #4 seed since they defeated Grand Rapids earlier in the season, 5-4. Grand Rapids should be #5 and then that would mean a rematch with Forest Lake in Forest Lake.

St. Francis and the Beniks also have a nice record but they lost badly to Forest Lake 8-3. The Saints most likely will be the 6th seed and will most likely see Andover or Duluth East first round.

Section 8AA: Moorhead
:: The Spuds may have a losing record after this weekend is over but with their huge win at Roseau 6-1 this week, it puts them at the #1 seed in the Section. Even though Roseau defeated Moorhead 4-1 in Moorhead earlier in the season, the goal differential was larger this time around in favor of Moorhead and Moorhead has played a tougher schedule than the Rams. That puts Roseau currently at #2.

Brainerd/Pillager/Pierz has a great opportunity to be the #1 or #2 seed as five of their last seven regular season games are on home ice including games against Grand Rapids, Roseau, and Moorhead. Moorhead thumped Brainerd/P/P earlier in the season, 6-0, on Moorhead's home ice. The shots were even in that game at 30.

Bemidji and St. Cloud Tech are both 11-7-0 and will fight for home ice as the #4 and #5 seeds. Neither team will face each other this season. I think at this point that Bemidji has the edge with a few more quality Class AA wins.