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Saturday, January 30, 2010

Top Seeds Should Be

I wanted to clarify what the Top Seeds Should Be listings to the right actually are. They are not who I necessarily think is the best team in the Section. The #1 seeds are based on criteria that most team sports would use to determine who won a conference or a division.

My personal thoughts on how good the teams are reflected in the rankings on the left.

My criteria used to determine the #1 seeds are as follows:

1. Overall record/results against like opponents within the Section
2. Head-to-head results against teams within the Section
3. Record/Results against like opponents outside of the Section
4. Results against other good teams in the state outside their Section

I had an upset Warroad fan email me this morning because I had Thief River Falls as the top seed in Section 8. They was thinking that I personally thought that Thief River Falls was a better team than Warroad. If they would have checked the state rankings, they would have seen that I have Warroad ranked ahead of Thief River Falls.

Here is why Thief River Falls should be the #1 seed for Section 8A:

1. Overall record/results against like opponents within the Section - Since Warroad lost to East Grand Forks and Thief River Falls defeated East Grand Forks, Thief River Falls gets the top seed. Just like if the Section were looked at as a conference (Mariucci, Lake, etc.), Thief River Falls would be considered the Section champion and thus get the #1 seed.

2. Head-to-head results - Each team has won one game against each other on their home ice so they are 1-1. This criteria would only be used if their Section record against like opponents was the same.

3.
Record/Results against like opponents outside of their Section - Because there were head-to-head results and because they each had results against like opponents within the Section, the 3rd and 4th criteria becomes irrelevant. If Thief River Falls did not defeat anyone else outside of their Section all year long, it would not matter. The Section itself is what matters FIRST.

4.
Results against other good teams in the state - Only used if the first three criteria are not useful.

Actually, if the committees actually use criteria, East Grand Forks would be the #2 seed in the Section. Again, Section results should come first before results against teams outside of their Section. East Grand Forks has only lost one game against like opponents compared to Warroad's two losses. But, Warroad and East Grand Forks play each other again on February 6th and I think the Warriors will be more than up for that game. If Warroad beats them by more than two goals, Warroad should be the #2 seed.

The problem comparing the Sections with Conferences is that not everyone plays each other within a Section. So, yes, the criteria can become a little more lax and a little more personal.

Section 1A is another one that is going to be interesting. Faribault has the best record in the Section but they lost to Albert Lea this week. Albert Lea, even though they currently have a losing record, could get the #1 seed in the Section because of their results within the Section. Rochester Lourdes plays Faribault today. If Lourdes wins, that puts Albert Lea at the top with the best record in the Section. Rochester Lourdes has defeated Albert Lea this year by one goal. However, Albert Lea has defeated two teams easily that Lourdes has lost to (Northfield and Red Wing). Because all of the teams do not face one another within the Section, their records against like opponents within the Section will have to be the first consideration.

For a Section like 6AA, the Minneapolis teams do not play Minnetonka, Wayzata, Eden Prairie, Benilde-St. Margaret's, or Hopkins. In that case, you do have to look at results against like opponents or against good teams outside of the Section.

I hope that helps explain it a little better on how I came up with the top seeds for each Section. Again, those are the top seeds as of today. Most Sections have not been completely settled yet. Hill-Murray may be the only one that has a lock on their #1 seeding.