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Thursday, February 25, 2010

Stats to chew on

Top 10 teams whose top three scorers average the most goals per game

1. Kittson County Central | 3.73 goals per game

- Craig Lindegard 44 goals
- Markas Dahl 22 goals
- Gabe Montoya 16 goals

Note: KCC's top three may score the most goals per game in the state but they rely on these three players too much for goal production. Those three score 67.2% of the teams goals. That is the fourth highest percentage out of 87 teams with a .500 record or better. A few teams near .500 were added as exceptions.

2. Detroit Lakes | 3.68 goals per game
- Tanner Lane 49 goals
- Nate Baker 22 goals
- Alex Phelps 21 goals

Note: The Lakers were eliminated by Willmar on Tuesday night. Detroit Lakes ranked 10th amongst the other 87 teams in relying on the top three to score goals. They were 59.7% of the teams goal production.

3. Breck School | 3.52 goals per game
- Tyson Fulton 33 goals
- Mike Morin 29 goals
- Chase Nystedt 26 goals

Note: Breck School has a lot more scoring depth. They ranked 55th out of 87 for having to rely on their top three scorers. They have scored 47.6% of the Mustangs' goals.

4. St. Francis | 3.44 goals per game
- Joey Benik 53
- TJ Belisle 26
- Tyler Labeaux 7

Note: St. Francis is out of the playoffs too. The Saints top three goal scorers were responsible for 77.5% of all of their goal production. That is number one of the 87 teams in the state. The top three scored 3.44 goals per game and the rest of the team averaged just one goal per game.

5. Winona | 3.24 goals per game
- Kyle Florin 35
- Jay Moran 26
- Aaron Theis 20

Note: Winona ranked as the 9th top heavy team of the 87 teams. Their top three scored 60.9% of the Winhawks' goals.

6. Eden Prairie | 3.20 goals per game
- Kyle Rau 35
- Mitch Rogge 22
- Mike Erickson 20

Note: Eden Prairie tied with Detroit Lakes at 10th for most top heavy team. 59.7% of the goal production comes from their top three.

7. St. Thomas Academy | 3.16 goals per game
- Zach Schroeder 29
- AJ Reid 26
- Christian Isackson 24

Note: STA has more depth. They ranked 33rd most top heavy with their top three scoring 52.7% of the Cadets goals.

8. Park Rapids Area | 3.04 goals per game
- Tucker Coborn 32
- Sam Coborn 30
- Dan Ricke 14

Note: Park Rapids relies on their top three for 58.9% of their production, tied for 16th highest.

9. Warroad | 3.00 goals per game
- Brock Nelson 39
- Brett Hebel 23
- Nick Stoskopf 13

Note: The Warriors top three score 63% of their goals. That is the 7th highest dependency.

10. Mahtomedi | 2.96 goals per game
- Brandon Zurn 28
- Charlie Adams 28
- Ben Marshall 18

Note: The Zephyrs three score 55.2% of the team's goals. That is 25th.
________________________________________________________

Top 20 teams that are most dependent on their top three to score goals

1 - St. Francis: 77.5% of their team's goal production
2 - Willmar: 69.8%
3 - Red Wing: 68.4%
4 - Kittson County Central: 67.2%
5 - East Grand Forks: 67.0%
6 - Delano/Rockford: 66.0%
7 - Warroad: 63.0%
8 - Hibbing/Chisholm: 61.0%
9 - Winona: 60.9%
10T - Detroit Lakes: 59.7%
10T - Eden Prairie: 59.7%
12 - Cretin-Derham Hall: 59.4%
13T - Providence Academy: 59.3%
13T - Brainerd/Pillager/Pierz: 59.3%
15 - Elk River/Zimmerman: 59.0%
16T - Forest Lake: 58.9%
16T - Park Rapids Area: 58.9%
18 - Duluth Denfeld: 58.8%
19T - Hopkins: 58.5%
19T - New Prague: 58.5%
________________________________________________________

Top 10 teams least dependent on their top three scorers

1 - Hill-Murray: 34.1% goal production by their team's top three goal scorers
2 - Duluth Marshall: 36.1%
3 - Duluth East: 36.8%
4 - Minnetonka: 37.1%
5 - Stillwater Area: 37.9%
6 - Rochester Lourdes: 38.2%
7 - Mankato West: 38.7%
8 - St. Paul Johnson: 39.7%
9 - Moose Lake Area: 40.7%
10 - Bloomington Jefferson: 41.1%
________________________________________________________

Top 10 best goals per game average by a team after their top three

1 - Academy of Holy Angels: 3.96 goals per game (6.88 gpg overall - 2.92 gpg by top 3)
2 - Breck School: 3.88 gpg (7.40 gpg overall - 3.52 gpg by top 3)
3 - Minnetonka: 3.80 gpg (6.04 gpg overall - 2.24 gpg by top 3)
4 - Hill-Murray: 3.64 gpg (5.52 gpg overall - 1.88 gpg by top 3)
5 - Bloomington Jefferson: 3.32 gpg (5.64 gpg overall - 2.32 gpg by top 3)
6 - Moose Lake Area: 3.20 gpg (5.40 gpg overall - 2.20 gpg by top 3)
7 - Hermantown: 3.04 gpg (5.60 gpg overall - 2.56 gpg by top 3)
8 - Virginia/MIB: 2.92 gpg (5.36 gpg overall - 2.44 gpg by top 3)
9 - Spring Lake Park: 2.88 gpg (5.56 gpg overall - 2.68 gpg by top 3)
10 - North St. Paul: 2.87 gpg (5.04 gpg overall - 2.17 gpg by top 3)

Confused? Example: Holy Angels, as a team, averages 6.88 goals per game. The top three goal scorers for Holy Angels average 2.92 goals per game of the 6.88. The rest of the team averages 3.96 goals per game of that 6.88.

The above stats sort of tells me which teams have the better scoring depth beyond their top three goal scorers.
________________________________________________________

Top 10 worst goals per game average by a team after their top three

1 - Mound-Westonka: 0.92 gpg (2.12 gpg overall - 1.20 gpg by top 3)
2T - Red Wing: 1.00 gpg (3.16 gpg overall - 2.16 gpg by top 3)
2T - St. Francis: 1.00 gpg (4.44 gpg overall - 3.44 gpg by top 3)
4T - New Prague: 1.08 gpg (2.60 gpg overall - 1.52 gpg by top 3)
4T - Willmar: 1.08 gpg (3.58 gpg overall - 2.50 gpg by top 3)
6 - East Grand Forks: 1.16 gpg (3.52 gpg overall - 2.36 gpg by top 3)
7 - Fergus Falls: 1.33 gpg (3.12 gpg overall - 1.79 gpg by top 3)
8T - Duluth Denfeld: 1.40 gpg (3.40 gpg overall - 2.00 gpg by top 3)
8T - Delano/Rockford: 1.40 gpg (4.12 gpg overall - 2.72 gpg by top 3)
10T - Providence Academy: 1.46 gpg (3.58 gpg overall - 2.12 gpg by top 3)
10T - Hutchinson: 1.46 gpg (2.79 gpg overall - 1.33 gpg by top 3)

This basically tells me the lack the depth after the top three goal scorers for the above teams. Notice that St. Francis is the only Class AA team in the group. Hopkins (12th), Forest Lake (13th), and Cretin-Derham Hall (15th) were close.

Again, I only pulled stats for 87 teams, most were teams with a .500 record or above. There were two or three exceptions for teams just under a .500 record.