Thursday, March 11th
Excel Energy Center
St. Paul, MN
Excel Energy Center
St. Paul, MN
Game 1: 11AM: Edina (20-6-2) vs. Roseau (22-5-1)
SCORING (Top 5 from each team)
| # | Name | YIS | Pos | Team | GP | G | A | PTS |
| 5 | Shane Omdahl | 11 | C | Roseau | 28 | 27 | 39 | 66 |
| 9 | Adam Knochenmus | 12 | W | Roseau | 23 | 21 | 29 | 50 |
| 24 | Cole Kostrzewski | 12 | F | Roseau | 27 | 19 | 26 | 45 |
| 19 | Steven Fogarty | 11 | F | Edina | 28 | 20 | 16 | 36 |
| 21 | Charlie Taft | 12 | F | Edina | 28 | 17 | 10 | 27 |
| 17 | Michael Sit | 11 | F | Edina | 28 | 12 | 15 | 27 |
| 15 | Trevor Baumgartner | 12 | F | Roseau | 28 | 10 | 15 | 25 |
| 8 | Kevin Erickson | 12 | RW | Roseau | 28 | 8 | 17 | 25 |
| 8 | Jake Sampson | 11 | F | Edina | 28 | 10 | 13 | 23 |
| 16 | Ryan Cutshall | 12 | F | Edina | 27 | 10 | 9 | 19 |
GOALTENDING
| Name | Team | YIS | GP | Record | GAA | Save % |
| Johnny Ankeny | Edina | 12 | 13.6 | 10-3-1 | 1.91 | .920 |
| Connor Girard | Edina | 11 | 14.7 | 10-3-1 | 1.77 | .915 |
| Ethan Kvidt | Roseau | 12 | 28.0 | 22-5-1 | 2.21 | .909 |
TEAM STATISTICAL COMPARISON
| Team | GPG - Rank | SPG - Rank | GAA - Rank | SAPG - Rank | Save % - Rank | Overall Rank |
| Edina | 4.50 - 5 | 34.4 - 3 | 1.86 - 3 | 22.5 - 4 | .917 - 3 | 3.6 |
| Roseau | 4.71 - 4 | 34.3 - 4 | 2.29 - 6 | 24.6 - 7 | .907 - 5 | 5.2 |
Edina certainly did not light up the scoreboard this season but they found a way to win. Even though they have six losses on the season, five losses came from just two teams, Minnetonka twice and Wayzata three times. Their only other loss was to Cretin-Derham Hall.
This is not last year's Hornets high scoring team. They still average a nice 4.50 goals per game but that is fifth amongst all of the eight teams in the tourney. This is more of a defensive-minded swarm of players that held opponents to less than 23 shots per game and goaltenders Johnny Ankeny and Connor Girard allowed less than two goals per game.
If you look at the scoring leaders between the two teams, Roseau's top three players scored 67 goals compared to Edina's top three scorers who netted 49. Yet, the two teams are almost even in goals scored per game. That tells me that Edina may have more scoring depth and Roseau is more dependent on their top three to score goals.
Defense and hot goaltending win games. I still think it will be a close game but Roseau will need to score at least three goals to beat Edina.
Prediction: Edina 3, Roseau 2
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Game 2: 1PM: Blaine (21-4-3) vs. Apple Valley (17-11-0)
SCORING (Top 5 from each team)
| # | Name | YIS | Pos | Team | GP | G | A | PTS |
| 27 | Nick Bjugstad | 11 | F | Blaine | 28 | 35 | 34 | 69 |
| 39 | Eric Scheid | 12 | F | Blaine | 28 | 23 | 29 | 52 |
| 22 | Jonny Brodzinski | 11 | F | Blaine | 28 | 22 | 26 | 48 |
| 22 | Hudson Fasching | 9 | F | Apple Valley | 28 | 23 | 17 | 40 |
| 10 | Gavin Tufte | 12 | F | Blaine | 28 | 20 | 17 | 37 |
| 19 | AJ Michaelson | 10 | F | Apple Valley | 22 | 18 | 16 | 34 |
| 3 | Tony Larson | 12 | D | Blaine | 28 | 6 | 26 | 32 |
| 9 | Chris Fischer | 12 | F | Apple Valley | 28 | 11 | 16 | 27 |
| 16 | Michael Berens | 11 | F | Apple Valley | 28 | 8 | 15 | 23 |
| 8 | Kris Goodman | 11 | F | Apple Valley | 28 | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| 21 | Peter Sikich | 12 | D | Apple Valley | 28 | 3 | 17 | 20 |
GOALTENDING
| Name | Team | YIS | GP | Record | GAA | Save % |
| Dan Harper | Blaine | 12 | 24.3 | 17-4-3 | 2.27 | .911 |
| Aaron Gretz | Apple Valley | 11 | 23.4 | 13-9-0 | 2.27 | .908 |
TEAM STATISTICAL COMPARISON
| Team | GPG - Rank | SPG - Rank | GAA - Rank | SAPG - Rank | Save % - Rank | Overall Rank |
| Blaine | 4.71 - 3 | 32.0 - 6 | 2.21 - 5 | 24.0 - 5 | .908 - 4 | 4.6 |
| Apple Valley | 3.64 - 6 | 29.8 - 7 | 2.64 - 7 | 24.4 - 6 | .891 - 7 | 6.6 |
Apple Valley is on its way up but they are about a year or two away from being a legitimate contender for a state title. Of Apple Valley's top 12 scorers, three are seniors, two are juniors, six are sophomores, and one freshman. The freshman, Hudson Fasching, leads the team in scoring. Goaltender Aaron Gretz is a junior.
Blaine's time is now. Even though Mr. Hockey Finalist Nick Bjugstad is officially a junior, he is taking accelerated courses and intends to graduate ahead of schedule. That means he will not be playing for Blaine next season. Of Blaine's top 12 scorers, eight are seniors, including Bjugstad. The other four are juniors. Dan Harper, the Bengals' experienced goaltender, is also a senior and a three-year starter at the state tournament.
You should see these two teams head in opposite directions next year but this year it is Blaine's time to shine.
Prediction: Blaine 5, Apple Valley 1
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Game 3: 6PM: Minnetonka (25-1-2) vs. Lakeville North (11-15-2)
SCORING (Top 5 from each team)
| # | Name | YIS | Pos | Team | GP | G | A | PTS |
| 17 | Derek Frawley | 11 | F | Minnetonka | 28 | 18 | 33 | 51 |
| 27 | Max Gardiner | 12 | F | Minnetonka | 20 | 19 | 30 | 49 |
| 9 | Max Coatta | 9 | F | Minnetonka | 28 | 23 | 22 | 45 |
| 8 | Thomas Schutt | 11 | F | Minnetonka | 28 | 20 | 22 | 42 |
| 11 | Andrew Prochno | 12 | D | Minnetonka | 28 | 8 | 31 | 39 |
| 12 | Nate Arentz | 10 | F | Lakeville North | 28 | 20 | 11 | 31 |
| 16 | Brady Skjei | 10 | D | Lakeville North | 28 | 10 | 18 | 28 |
| 19 | Tyler Goss | 12 | F | Lakeville North | 28 | 12 | 11 | 23 |
| 4 | Jack Pahl | 12 | F | Lakeville North | 25 | 6 | 16 | 22 |
| 8 | Nick Johnson | 12 | F | Lakeville North | 27 | 10 | 11 | 21 |
GOALTENDING
| Name | Team | YIS | GP | Record | GAA | Save % |
| Jim Kruger | Minnetonka | 12 | 19.6 | 17-1-2 | 1.58 | .935 |
| Charlie Lindgren | Lakeville North | 10 | 15.0 | 6-7-2 | 2.86 | .890 |
| Matt Arentz | Lakeville North | 12 | 13.3 | 5-8-0 | 3.69 | .871 |
TEAM STATISTICAL COMPARISON
| Team | GPG - Rank | SPG - Rank | GAA - Rank | SAPG - Rank | Save % - Rank | Overall Rank |
| Minnetonka | 6.07 - 1 | 34.5 - 2 | 1.35 - 1 | 21.4 - 3 | .937 - 1 | 1.6 |
| Lakeville North | 3.43 - 8 | 29.3 - 8 | 3.36 - 8 | 27.5 - 8 | .878 - 8 | 8.0 |
There is not a lot to say here. Minnetonka was expected to be here and they are the favorites to win the tournament.
Lakeville North was not expected to win Section 1AA but they had a great tournament winning each of their three games by three or more goals. They won the Section 1AA championship game against their crosstown rivals Lakeville South 5-0. Lakeville South was expected to win that game since they defeated Lakeville North twice during the regular season by a combined score of 9-1. To slightly misquote the great philosopher Forrest Gump's mama, Section 1AA is like a box of chocolates, you never know what your gonna get.
Minnetonka is determined to win a state title and I do not see them taking it easy on the Panthers. Minnetonka has the best goal scoring team in the tournament, in the state, and they have the best goaltender in the tournament in Jim Kruger. Mr. Hockey Finalist Max Gardiner and freshman Max Coatta are fun to watch on the same line while juniors Derek Frawley and Thomas Schutt are dangerous around the net. The Skippers high profile defensemen Andrew Prochno and Mr. Hockey Finalist Justin Holl will out-skate and out-score Lakeville North in this one.
Prediction: Minnetonka 7, Lakeville North 0
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Game 4: 8PM: Hill-Murray (25-2-1) vs. Duluth East (19-5-4)
SCORING (Top 5 from each team)
| # | Name | YIS | Pos | Team | GP | G | A | PTS |
| 15 | Willie Faust | 12 | F | Hill-Murray | 27 | 22 | 22 | 44 |
| 11 | Ben Bahe | 11 | F | Hill-Murray | 28 | 14 | 22 | 36 |
| 16 | Jake Randolph | 10 | F | Duluth East | 28 | 5 | 27 | 32 |
| 6 | Chris Casto | 12 | D | Hill-Murray | 28 | 13 | 18 | 31 |
| 21 | Kevin Becker | 11 | F | Hill-Murray | 27 | 18 | 12 | 30 |
| 12 | Jack Walsh | 12 | F | Hill-Murray | 28 | 16 | 14 | 30 |
| 34 | Phil Johnson | 11 | F | Duluth East | 28 | 13 | 11 | 24 |
| 10 | Kyle Lutzka | 12 | F | Duluth East | 28 | 11 | 13 | 24 |
| 9 | Kenny Mellin | 12 | F | Duluth East | 28 | 12 | 10 | 22 |
| 6 | Andy Welinski | 11 | D | Duluth East | 22 | 4 | 17 | 21 |
GOALTENDING
| Name | Team | YIS | GP | Record | GAA | Save % |
| Tim Shaughnessy | Hill-Murray | 11 | 24.1 | 21-2-1 | 1.54 | .926 |
| Jo Jo Jeanetta | Duluth East | 11 | 20.7 | 12-4-4 | 1.83 | .910 |
TEAM STATISTICAL COMPARISON
| Team | GPG - Rank | SPG - Rank | GAA - Rank | SAPG - Rank | Save % - Rank | Overall Rank |
| Hill-Murray | 5.54 - 2 | 39.0 - 1 | 1.54 - 2 | 19.1 - 1 | .920 - 2 | 1.6 |
| Duluth East | 3.64 - 6 | 34.1 - 5 | 2.11 - 4 | 20.9 - 2 | .899 - 6 | 4.6 |
As stated before, in my opinion, Hill-Murray should have been the number two seed in this tournament. However, they were select as the number four seed. In the quarterfinals, they are facing a team in Duluth East that I would have given the fifth seed if all eight were seeded.
Both teams have successful head coaches that emphasize team defense first and that scoring chances will come with a good, aggressive forecheck. It has been a philosophy that has worked well for both coaches.
If Duluth East is going to win this game, they will need to be disciplined and better at the forecheck than Hill-Murray. Duluth East does not have the scorers that Hill-Murray does. Duluth East's scoring chances will be limited and they will need to take advantage of them when they do happen.
Per each team's team statistics, Hill-Murray has a better penalty kill (90.72% to 82.80%) and a better power play (23.42% to 21.13%). Duluth East needs to stay out of the penalty box and they need to convert on any potential power plays.
Both teams did meet once during the season. They met in the consolation semifinal at the Schwan Cup on December 29th. Hill-Murray won 5-1. The shots were in Hill-Murray's favor 30-21. Joel Perlinger was in goal for Duluth East, not Thursday's probable starter Jo Jo Jeanetta.
I think Duluth East will struggle to score again against Tim Shaughnessy and Hill-Murray. The defenses have had similar success. The Greyhounds do not have the depth of players that can score goals against a strong defense. Hill-Murray does. Hill-Murray has four skaters in Willie Faust (22), Kevin Becker (18), Jack Walsh (16), and Ben Bahe (14), that have more goals than Duluth East's top goal scorer, Phil Johnson (13).
Prediction: Hill-Murray 3, Duluth East 1
