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Wednesday, March 10, 2010

2009-2010 Class A State Tournament Quarterfinal Matchups

Wednesday, March 10th
Excel Energy Center
St. Paul, MN

Game 1: 11AM: Mahtomedi (23-5-0) vs. Alexandria (21-6-1)

SCORING (Top 5 from each team)
#
Name
YIS
Pos
Team
GP
G
A
PTS
22
Brandon Zurn
12
F
Mahtomedi
28
33
39
72
3
Charlie Adams
12
F
Mahtomedi
28
33
33
66
9
Thomas Williams
12
F
Alexandria
26
37
24
61
14
Ben Marshall
11
D
Mahtomedi
26
19
34
53
17
Casey Vangsness
12
F
Alexandria
28
15
30
45
7
Ross Thompson
12
F
Alexandria
28
12
31
43
21
Mike Rose
11
F
Mahtomedi
27
16
17
33
17
Tanner Jordan
10
F
Mahtomedi
26
14
13
27
8
Ashton Gronholz
12
F
Alexandria
28
15
8
23
4
Tyler Iverson
12
F
Alexandria
28
9
10
19

GOALTENDING
Name
Team
YIS
GP
Record
GAA
Save %
Erich Murphy
Alexandria
10
22.1
16-3-1
1.90
.914
Brad Wohlers
Mahtomedi
12
16.8
14-4-0
2.61
.908
Sawyer Marshall
Mahtomedi
10
13.8
8-1-0
1.66
.896

TEAM STATISTICAL COMPARISON
Team
GPG -
Rank
SPG -
Rank
GAA -
Rank
SAPG -
Rank
Save % -
Rank
Overall Rank
Mahtomedi
5.36 - 4
32.5 - 7
2.50 - 6
26.2 - 7
.905 - 3
5.4
Alexandria
4.43 - 7
34.7 - 6
2.07 - 4
21.3 - 5
.903 - 5
5.4

This is a good matchup on paper. The goaltenders are relatively even with a slight edge to Alexandria's Erich Murphy. Brad Wohlers can get hot at the right time just like he did in the Section 4A championship this year and last year both against St. Thomas Academy. Alexandria appears to have the better defense. Mahtomedi tends to give up quite a few shots.

This should be a very good game. In the end, I like Mahtomedi's top three scorers (Brandon Zurn-Charlie Adams-Ben Marshall) over Alexandria's one (Thomas Williams).

Prediction: Mahtomedi 4, Alexandria 3

__________________________________________________________________

Game 2: 1PM: Hermantown (25-3-0) vs. Virginia/MIB (18-7-3)

SCORERS (Top 5 from each team)
#
Name
YIS
Pos
Team
GP
G
A
PTS
7
Garrett Hendrickson
11
F
Virginia/MIB
28
32
44
76
27
Adam Krause
12
C
Hermantown
28
36
28
64
3
Andrew Judnick
12
F
Virginia/MIB
28
19
25
44
5
Charlie Comnick
12
W
Hermantown
28
18
25
43
10
Dan Chesser
12
F
Virginia/MIB
28
17
23
40
8
Wes Judnick
11
D
Virginia/MIB
28
8
32
40
25
Travis Eddy
11
F
Virginia/MIB
27
18
20
38
9
Willis Kantonen
12
W
Hermantown
28
16
22
38
4
Jeff Paczynski
12
D
Hermantown
22
6
22
28
16
Jared Kolquist
10
D
Hermantown
28
3
25
28

GOALTENDING
Name
Team
YIS
GP
Record
GAA
Save %
Casey Myhre
Virginia/MIB
12
16.8
10-3-3
1.91
.922
Tiegen Brickson
Hermantown
12
12.6
13-0-0
1.51
.921
Tyler Ampe
Hermantown
12
15.7
12-3-0
1.85
.909
Andy Milbridge
Virginia/MIB
11
12.0
8-4-0
3.08
.855

TEAM STATISTICAL COMPARISON
Team
GPG -
Rank
SPG -
Rank
GAA -
Rank
SAPG -
Rank
Save % -
Rank
Overall Rank
Hermantown
5.79 - 2
44.0 - 1
1.75 - 2
20.0 - 2
.913 - 2
1.8
Virginia/MIB
5.79 - 2
37.0 - 4
2.54 - 7
23.9 - 6
.894 - 7
5.2

Hermantown leads in every statistical category except goals per game. Both teams are even in scoring goals at 5.79 goals per game. Virginia/MIB's goaltending statistics overall is misleading because Casey Myhre had a much better season than Andy Milbridge. Myhre is the second best goaltender according to save percentage going into the tournament.

Both teams met each other once on December 22nd. Hermantown won 4-2. The shots were 35-17 in favor of Hermantown. Myhre and Tyler Ampe were in goal for each team. Adam Krause scored in that game, Garrett Hendrickson did not.

Virginia/MIB's defense will need to slow down Hermantown's high octane offense or block more shots to help reduce the shots that Myhre faces and the offense will need to put more shots on Hermantown's goaltender, Ampe or Tiegen Brickson, to have a shot at upsetting the Hawks.

Prediction: Hermantown 5, Virginia/MIB 2

__________________________________________________________________

Game 3: 6PM: Breck School (26-2-0) vs. New Ulm (16-9-1)

SCORERS (Top 5 from each team)
#
Name
YIS
Pos
Team
GP
G
A
PTS
23
Tyson Fulton
12
F
Breck School
28
34
50
84
8
Mike Morin
12
F
Breck School
28
33
28
61
9
Riley Borer
12
F
Breck School
27
18
40
58
17
Chase Nystedt
12
F
Breck School
28
26
23
49
26
Wesley Iverson
10
F
Breck School
28
16
23
39
8
Zach Fisher
12
W
New Ulm
26
18
16
34
3
Kaleb Juntunen
11
W
New Ulm
22
18
16
34
5
Brody Peterson
10
C
New Ulm
26
20
13
33
12
Adam Loose
11
W
New Ulm
25
14
16
30
16
Zach Hoffmann
11
D
New Ulm
24
7
21
28

GOALTENDING
Name
Team
YIS
GP
Record
GAA
Save %
John Russell
Breck School
12
21.0
19-2-0
1.43
.946
Blake Burgau
New Ulm
11
26.3
16-9-1
2.67
.899

TEAM STATISTICAL COMPARISON
Team
GPG -
Rank
SPG -
Rank
GAA -
Rank
SAPG -
Rank
Save % -
Rank
Overall Rank
Breck School
7.36 - 1
39.8 - 2
1.46 - 1
20.3 - 4
.928 - 1
1.8
New Ulm
4.50 - 6
39.0 - 3
2.73 - 8
26.7 - 8
.898 - 6
6.2

This is most definitely a David versus Goliath matchup. Breck School averages almost three more goals per game than New Ulm. New Ulm gives up almost double the goals per game than Breck School does. New Ulm has averaged 39 shots on goal on mostly Section 3A and 1A opponents. Breck School played a much more difficult schedule.

Breck School's roster is deep with talent and they should win another state title. New Ulm made it to state through the weakest Section, 3A. If New Ulm wins this game, it will be the biggest upset in state tournament history.

Prediction: Breck School 8, New Ulm 1
__________________________________________________________________

Game 4: 8PM: Warroad (24-4-0) vs. Rochester Lourdes (17-8-3)

SCORERS (Top 5 from each team)
#
Name
YIS
Pos
Team
GP
G
A
PTS
3
Brock Nelson
12
F
Warroad
28
47
38
85
9
Brett Hebel
12
F
Warroad
28
26
44
70
5
Carson Gray
11
D
Warroad
25
7
33
40
13
Nick Stoskopf
11
D
Warroad
28
17
21
38
20
Alex Funk
9
F
Rochester Lourdes
28
15
14
29
4
Jason Samuelson
9
F
Rochester Lourdes
28
13
15
28
21
Rory Vesel
11
D
Rochester Lourdes
27
5
23
28
7
Brandon Chezick
12
F
Rochester Lourdes
27
11
15
26
37
Joey Olson
12
D
Warroad
28
5
20
25
17
Alex Kurth
12
F
Rochester Lourdes
27
9
14
23

GOALTENDING
Name
Team
YIS
GP
Record
GAA
Save %
Shawn Storey
Warroad
12
17.7
14-3-0
1.70
.916
Andy Foster
Warroad
10
9.7
8-1-0
1.95
.901
Mark Greve
Rochester Lourdes
12
10.5
7-2-1
1.72
.892
Nick Heimer
Rochester Lourdes
11
18.0
10-6-2
2.39
.870

TEAM STATISTICAL COMPARISON
Team
GPG -
Rank
SPG -
Rank
GAA -
Rank
SAPG -
Rank
Save % -
Rank
Overall Rank
Warroad
4.96 - 5
35.6 - 5
1.89 - 3
20.0 - 2
.905 - 3
3.6
Rochester Lourdes
3.50 - 8
30.7 - 8
2.21 - 5
17.7 - 1
.875 - 8
6.0

Warroad goes into the game favored but they better not overlook Rochester Lourdes. The Rochester Lourdes Eagles are lead in scoring by two freshmen, Alex Funk and Jason Samuelson, and they do not score a lot as a team but their defense is one of the best in the state. They allow opponents just 17.7 shots per game. They held Breck School to just two goals and 25 shots. #1 Breck School was held to less than four goals only twice all season, once to Rochester Lourdes (2 goals) and to the #1 ranked non-MSHSL prep school in the country Shattuck St. Mary's (1 goal).

Eagles goaltender Nick Heimer did not have a great junior season but he was solid in the playoffs. He returns to the Class A state tournament having started during it last year as a sophomore.

Warroad is led by 6'4" Mr. Hockey Finalist Brock Nelson. Nelson led all other scorers in the state in the playoffs by scoring eight goals and assisting on four others in three games. He also comes into the Class A State Tournament having the most points of any other player of the final eight teams. He leads Breck School's Tyson Fulton by one point. I think Nelson and Blaine's Nick Bjugstad should be the front runners for the 2010 Mr. Hockey Award.

Rochester Lourdes may be able to stay in the game until the third and then I think Nelson and Brett Hebel will find a way to finish strong for Warroad.

Prediction: Warroad 3, Rochester Lourdes 1