Notice: I will be at the Sioux Falls vs. Chisago USHL game so I will not be providing updates until I get home after 9:30PM.
Three Thursday games will be broadcast on MSBN
Apple Valley vs. Woodbury, 7PM
Thief River Falls vs. Warroad, 7PM
Blake School vs. Breck School, 7PM
Elk River/Zimmerman vs. Duluth East, 7:30 PM
THE FAN 1490AM - Duluth/Superior
Red Wing vs. Rochester Lourdes, 7PM
Possibly?: THE FAN 1270AM - KWEB
FTP playoff prediction record: 100 out of 124 correct | 80.7%
SECTION PLAYOFFS
Section 3AA
Championship
(4) Apple Valley (16-11-0) vs. (3) Woodbury (17-8-2), 7:30PM | MN SF Coliseum
Game notes: Woodbury and Apple Valley have been in the same Section for the last three years but they have only faced each other once in those three years. The last time they met was last year in the Section 3AA semifinals. A. J. Michaelson, a freshman last season, and Apple Valley ended Woodbury's great season 2-0. Michaelson scored the game-winning goal with 8:59 left in the third period. Goaltender Aaron Gretz, a sophomore last year, posted the shutout by stopping all 30 Royals shots. Woodbury was 21-3-2 before that game and they were the favorites to win the Section. Apple Valley went on to lose to Cretin-Derham Hall in the Section 3AA championship game 2-1 in overtime.
This season, Apple Valley is a little bit better than 2008-2009 and Woodbury, who had even higher expectations this season than last, have not quite had the season many thought they would.
Woodbury started the season 5-6-1 in their first 12 games. In their last fifteen games, they have gone 12-2-1.
Max Gaede returned for Woodbury for his senior year. He turned down an opportunity to play junior hockey in the Western Hockey League for the Edmonton Oil Kings to play out his senior season with his friends back in Minnesota. Like the Royals, Gaede was expected to have a great season and was considered by many to be a preseason candidate to become a Mr. Hockey Finalist. Gaede apparently did not have the numbers to get him in as one of the 10. He does lead his team in scoring by more than 10 points. During the regular season, he scored 19 goals and assisted on 17 others for 36 total points. In two games in the playoffs, he has netted three of the team's seven total goals.
After Gaede, the Royals look to Colin Keefe (10 goals), Walker Hyland (9), Tyler Nowicki (9), Matt Pederson (9), Connor Delaney (7), and Jason Eddy (7) to score.
Michael Ness has been great in goal all season going 13-6-1 with a 2.58 GAA and a .903 save percentage. He has been solid in the playoffs and he came up huge in the semifinal game against last year's Section 3AA champions Cretin-Derham Hall. Ness stopped 28 of 29 of the Raiders' shots as Woodbury defeated Cretin-Derham Hall 2-1.
Both teams allow opponents 24 shots per game.
Apple Valley is a very good team full of youth. There are five seniors, four juniors, 10 sophomores, and one freshman on the varsity roster.
The Eagles leading scorer during the regular season was the lone freshman, Hudson Fasching. He also leads the team in goals with 21. Sophomore AJ Michaelson was second with 16 goals (3 so far in the playoffs), senior Chris Fischer 11 goals, and then junior Kris Goodman with 10 goals. Michaelson leads the team in points in the playoffs with three goals and two assists.
Junior Aaron Gretz is back in goal for the Eagles. He is 2-0-0 with a 0.93 GAA and a .952 save percentage in the playoffs. He was 10-9-0 with a 2.52 GAA and a .899 save percentage during the regular season. Gretz shutout a better Woodbury team in the semifinals in 2008-2009.
Apple Valley has the advantage of playing in the notoriously competitive Lake Conference. They did not beat Burnsville, Bloomington Jefferson, Eden Prairie, or even Eagan, losing twice each to all four during the regular season. They did beat everyone else in the conference at least once. And then, when it was "win or go home", they defeated Eagan in the Section 3AA semifinals 3-2 in overtime.
Woodbury plays in the less competitive Suburban East Conference. They went 1-1 against Park (Cottage Grove), 0-1-1 against Forest Lake, and 1-1-0 against Cretin-Derham Hall during the regular season. And, as stated before, they defeated Cretin-Derham Hall again in the 3AA semifinal game.
Apple Valley is shaping up to be a top team not only in Section 3AA, not only in the Lake Conference, but in the state for the next couple of years. I think Apple Valley will win Thurday night and they will get their first ever invite to the Xcel Energy Center for the Class AA state tournament. Their last appearance in the state tournament was in 1996 at the former St. Paul Civic Center.
Prediction: Apple Valley 4, Woodbury 2
________________________________________________________________
Section 7AA
Championship
(2) Duluth East (18-5-4) vs. (1) Elk River/Zimmerman (17-7-3), 7:30PM | D.E.C.C.
Game notes: Here is another one of several Section championship rematches this season. Duluth East defeated Elk River/Zimmerman 4-1 in last year's Section 7AA Final.
During this season, these two teams met once in Elk River. Elk River/Zimmerman prevailed 3-2. Shot were 33-15 in favor of Duluth East.
Elk River/Zimmerman has the better top end goal scorers in senior forward Ben Jaremko (41 goals) and senior forward Chad Hennum (18 goals). Ben's brother, junior defenseman Ryan Jaremko, is second in team points with eight goals and 33 assists.
Duluth East has the better defense by allowing opponents 21 shots per game compared to Elk River/Zimmerman's 32 shots per game.
Duluth East relies on the entire team to score. The goals are balanced with eight players having five or more goals for the Greyhounds and no more than 11 goals at the top. Elk River/Zimmerman has six players with five or more goals.
The goaltending is even. Anders Franke has a .907 save percentage and allows 2.22 goals per game for Elk River/Zimmerman while Jo Jo Jeanetta has a .902 save percentage and allows 2.03 goals per game.
I like Duluth East's defense to trump the Elks' Jaremko brothers and Hennum.
Prediction: Duluth East 3, Elk River/Zimmerman 2
________________________________________________________________
Section 1A
Championship
(5) Red Wing (15-13-0) vs. (2) Rochester Lourdes (15-8-3), 7PM | Rochester Rec Center
Game notes: Rochester Lourdes and Red Wing meet for the second time this season. Red Wing won the first time back on December 10th, 4-2. Rochester Lourdes outshot Red Wing 31-12 in that game.
There were high expectations for Red Wing at the beginning of the season. I had picked them to win the Section. They had eight returning starters at the forward position, three defensemen, and a good goaltender in Sam Amendolar. But, things started very ugly for the Wingers. They started the season 2-7-0 and they were blown out by three or more goals in six of the seven losses. The Wingers have been streaky. They lost three, won two, lost four, won five, lost three, won four, lost three, and have now won four in a row heading into the Section 1A Final. The good sign in their last four games has been that they have only given up a total of seven goals. The Wingers have given six or more goals in a game nine out of 28 times.
As the season wore on, the Wingers had been getting good scoring production from senior Patrick Noesen, sophomore Jake O'Borsky, and senior Jared Nelson. Since January 29th, in 12 games, O'Borsky has scored 16 goals, including five in the playoffs. He has now overtaken Noesen, who had been the go-to scorer for Red Wing, in total team goals. O'Borsky has 26 total and Noesen 25. Jared Nelson leads the team and tied for the state lead in scoring during the playoffs with 11 points (3 goals, 8 assists).
Red Wing's goaltender Sam Amendolar is coming on in the playoffs. During the regular season, Sam Amendolar had 4.26 GAA and a .844 save percentage. In the playoffs, Amendolar is 3-0-0 with a 1.67 GAA and a .932 save percentage.
Rochester Lourdes is a team that had lower expectations coming into this season. They had lost a lot to graduation with only 24 total goals returning from 2008-2009.
With the offense rebuilding, Lourdes' defense is the team's strength. During the regular season, they have allowed opponents 18.12 shots per game and 2.40 goals per game. In comparison, Red Wing has allowed their opponents 27.32 shots per game, 4.36 goals. Junior Rory Vesel leads Rochester Lourdes defensemen in scoring with five goals and 21 assists.
The young guys have stepped up to provide the goal scoring for the Eagles. Two freshmen, Alex Funk and Jason Samuelson, lead the team in goals. Funk has 15, Samuelson 13. They have scored four of the team's six playoff goals. Seniors Alex Dewitz (11 goals), Brandon Cheznick (10 goals), and Alex Kurth (9 goals) also provide scoring punch for Lourdes.
Junior Nick Heimer returned for his junior season after appearing as the starter in the Class A state tournament in 2008-2009 as a sophomore. This year, Heimer has shared time in goal with senior Mark Greve. Greve had the better stats in goal. In 11 games, Greve went 7-2-1 with a 1.72 GAA and a .892 save percentage. In 16 games, Nick Heimer went 7-6-1 with a 2.74 GAA and a .857 save percentage. In the playoffs, new Head Coach Josh Spaniol has went with the experienced goaltender, Nick Heimer. Heimer has played all 102 minutes of the two games played and he is 2-0-0 with a 1.00 GAA and a .926 save percentage.
The big question revolving the Section 1A championship is what Red Wing team will show up at Rochester Recreation Center Thursday night.
Prediction: Rochester Lourdes 3, Red Wing 1
________________________________________________________________
Section 2A
Championship
(3) Blake School (18-8-1) vs. (1) Breck School (25-2-0), 7:30PM | Parade Ice Garden
Game notes: The B Schools rivalry continues but this time with one going home and the other moving on to the state tournament.
Breck School won both regular season games by a combined score of 12-2 (7-1, 5-1).
Breck School is loaded and hard to stop. The rivalry will not make a difference. Breck School lost one game this season, 4-3 in overtime, and that was to the only team I think that has a chance to beat them in the state tournament, St. Thomas Academy. They also lost 4-1 to the non-MSHL prep school Shattuck-St. Mary's, the school where Sidney Crosby, Jonathan Toews, and countless other NHL players have gone to. Out of 27 games this season and beyond the two losses, Breck won one game by one goal, two games by two goals, and 22 games were won by three or more goals. No other team can claim that kind of success. In 31 games last year, Breck won 23 games by three goals or more. Breck should tie that 23 game total this year on Thursday night and then break it in the state tournament.
I still think Breck School senior Tyson Fulton should have been a Mr. Hockey Finalist. He tied for third in scoring in the entire state this season and he was third in scoring amongst all juniors in 2008-2009. Fulton has no goals in the playoffs but five assists. He has yet to pick a college.
Nate Traina leads the team in scoring in the playoffs with three goals and four assists. Colorado College recruit Mike Morin has the most goals with four. In two playoff games, eight Breck players have scored goals, five have scored two or more.
Throw out two losses by Breck and a loss to Class AA's #1 team in Minnetonka, Blake School would be 18-5-1. They rely on their strong defense and steady goaltending. They have only given up more than three goals in a game four out of 24 times. You can guess who three out of the four were. The other was, ironically, Thief River Falls, a team that does not score a lot of goals. Blake is 17-1-0 when they hold opponents to 2 goals or less. The bad news is that only one MSHSL Class A school held Breck to less than three goals this season, Rochester Lourdes, and Breck still won 2-1.
Prediction: Breck School 6, Blake School 1
________________________________________________________________
Section 8A
Championship
(2) Thief River Falls (19-7-1) vs. (1) Warroad (23-4-0), 7PM | EGF Civic Center
Game notes: In two games this season, both teams won a game with the same score, 2-1.
If Thief River Falls has a chance to win, they will need to score at least three goals for Zane Gothberg. When Thief River Falls scores three or more goals in a game, they are 15-1-0. When they score less than three goals, they are 4-6-1.
On the other side, Warroad has only been held to two goals or less in a game four times in 27 games. Thief River Falls held Warroad to two or less goals in two out of those four games. Brock Nelson and Brett Hebel both combined to average 2.48 goals per game in 25 regular season games. The rest of the team averaged 2.28 goals per game. In 2 playoff games, Nelson and Hebel are averaging 4.5 goals per game. Nelson alone is averaging 3.5 per playoff game. He leads all other players in the state in scoring in the playoffs at 11 points with seven goals and four assists.
Thief River Falls needs to keep Nelson and Hebel away from the puck, don't let them shoot, and let Gothberg stop the pucks that come his way from the rest of the team. Otherwise, the Warriors will 'be baaack' at the X to contend for another state title.
Prediction: Warroad 3, Thief River Falls 1
Section 3AA
Championship
(4) Apple Valley (16-11-0) vs. (3) Woodbury (17-8-2), 7:30PM | MN SF Coliseum
Game notes: Woodbury and Apple Valley have been in the same Section for the last three years but they have only faced each other once in those three years. The last time they met was last year in the Section 3AA semifinals. A. J. Michaelson, a freshman last season, and Apple Valley ended Woodbury's great season 2-0. Michaelson scored the game-winning goal with 8:59 left in the third period. Goaltender Aaron Gretz, a sophomore last year, posted the shutout by stopping all 30 Royals shots. Woodbury was 21-3-2 before that game and they were the favorites to win the Section. Apple Valley went on to lose to Cretin-Derham Hall in the Section 3AA championship game 2-1 in overtime.
This season, Apple Valley is a little bit better than 2008-2009 and Woodbury, who had even higher expectations this season than last, have not quite had the season many thought they would.
Woodbury started the season 5-6-1 in their first 12 games. In their last fifteen games, they have gone 12-2-1.
Max Gaede returned for Woodbury for his senior year. He turned down an opportunity to play junior hockey in the Western Hockey League for the Edmonton Oil Kings to play out his senior season with his friends back in Minnesota. Like the Royals, Gaede was expected to have a great season and was considered by many to be a preseason candidate to become a Mr. Hockey Finalist. Gaede apparently did not have the numbers to get him in as one of the 10. He does lead his team in scoring by more than 10 points. During the regular season, he scored 19 goals and assisted on 17 others for 36 total points. In two games in the playoffs, he has netted three of the team's seven total goals.
After Gaede, the Royals look to Colin Keefe (10 goals), Walker Hyland (9), Tyler Nowicki (9), Matt Pederson (9), Connor Delaney (7), and Jason Eddy (7) to score.
Michael Ness has been great in goal all season going 13-6-1 with a 2.58 GAA and a .903 save percentage. He has been solid in the playoffs and he came up huge in the semifinal game against last year's Section 3AA champions Cretin-Derham Hall. Ness stopped 28 of 29 of the Raiders' shots as Woodbury defeated Cretin-Derham Hall 2-1.
Both teams allow opponents 24 shots per game.
Apple Valley is a very good team full of youth. There are five seniors, four juniors, 10 sophomores, and one freshman on the varsity roster.
The Eagles leading scorer during the regular season was the lone freshman, Hudson Fasching. He also leads the team in goals with 21. Sophomore AJ Michaelson was second with 16 goals (3 so far in the playoffs), senior Chris Fischer 11 goals, and then junior Kris Goodman with 10 goals. Michaelson leads the team in points in the playoffs with three goals and two assists.
Junior Aaron Gretz is back in goal for the Eagles. He is 2-0-0 with a 0.93 GAA and a .952 save percentage in the playoffs. He was 10-9-0 with a 2.52 GAA and a .899 save percentage during the regular season. Gretz shutout a better Woodbury team in the semifinals in 2008-2009.
Apple Valley has the advantage of playing in the notoriously competitive Lake Conference. They did not beat Burnsville, Bloomington Jefferson, Eden Prairie, or even Eagan, losing twice each to all four during the regular season. They did beat everyone else in the conference at least once. And then, when it was "win or go home", they defeated Eagan in the Section 3AA semifinals 3-2 in overtime.
Woodbury plays in the less competitive Suburban East Conference. They went 1-1 against Park (Cottage Grove), 0-1-1 against Forest Lake, and 1-1-0 against Cretin-Derham Hall during the regular season. And, as stated before, they defeated Cretin-Derham Hall again in the 3AA semifinal game.
Apple Valley is shaping up to be a top team not only in Section 3AA, not only in the Lake Conference, but in the state for the next couple of years. I think Apple Valley will win Thurday night and they will get their first ever invite to the Xcel Energy Center for the Class AA state tournament. Their last appearance in the state tournament was in 1996 at the former St. Paul Civic Center.
Prediction: Apple Valley 4, Woodbury 2
________________________________________________________________
Section 7AA
Championship
(2) Duluth East (18-5-4) vs. (1) Elk River/Zimmerman (17-7-3), 7:30PM | D.E.C.C.
Game notes: Here is another one of several Section championship rematches this season. Duluth East defeated Elk River/Zimmerman 4-1 in last year's Section 7AA Final.
During this season, these two teams met once in Elk River. Elk River/Zimmerman prevailed 3-2. Shot were 33-15 in favor of Duluth East.
Elk River/Zimmerman has the better top end goal scorers in senior forward Ben Jaremko (41 goals) and senior forward Chad Hennum (18 goals). Ben's brother, junior defenseman Ryan Jaremko, is second in team points with eight goals and 33 assists.
Duluth East has the better defense by allowing opponents 21 shots per game compared to Elk River/Zimmerman's 32 shots per game.
Duluth East relies on the entire team to score. The goals are balanced with eight players having five or more goals for the Greyhounds and no more than 11 goals at the top. Elk River/Zimmerman has six players with five or more goals.
The goaltending is even. Anders Franke has a .907 save percentage and allows 2.22 goals per game for Elk River/Zimmerman while Jo Jo Jeanetta has a .902 save percentage and allows 2.03 goals per game.
I like Duluth East's defense to trump the Elks' Jaremko brothers and Hennum.
Prediction: Duluth East 3, Elk River/Zimmerman 2
________________________________________________________________
Section 1A
Championship
(5) Red Wing (15-13-0) vs. (2) Rochester Lourdes (15-8-3), 7PM | Rochester Rec Center
Game notes: Rochester Lourdes and Red Wing meet for the second time this season. Red Wing won the first time back on December 10th, 4-2. Rochester Lourdes outshot Red Wing 31-12 in that game.
There were high expectations for Red Wing at the beginning of the season. I had picked them to win the Section. They had eight returning starters at the forward position, three defensemen, and a good goaltender in Sam Amendolar. But, things started very ugly for the Wingers. They started the season 2-7-0 and they were blown out by three or more goals in six of the seven losses. The Wingers have been streaky. They lost three, won two, lost four, won five, lost three, won four, lost three, and have now won four in a row heading into the Section 1A Final. The good sign in their last four games has been that they have only given up a total of seven goals. The Wingers have given six or more goals in a game nine out of 28 times.
As the season wore on, the Wingers had been getting good scoring production from senior Patrick Noesen, sophomore Jake O'Borsky, and senior Jared Nelson. Since January 29th, in 12 games, O'Borsky has scored 16 goals, including five in the playoffs. He has now overtaken Noesen, who had been the go-to scorer for Red Wing, in total team goals. O'Borsky has 26 total and Noesen 25. Jared Nelson leads the team and tied for the state lead in scoring during the playoffs with 11 points (3 goals, 8 assists).
Red Wing's goaltender Sam Amendolar is coming on in the playoffs. During the regular season, Sam Amendolar had 4.26 GAA and a .844 save percentage. In the playoffs, Amendolar is 3-0-0 with a 1.67 GAA and a .932 save percentage.
Rochester Lourdes is a team that had lower expectations coming into this season. They had lost a lot to graduation with only 24 total goals returning from 2008-2009.
With the offense rebuilding, Lourdes' defense is the team's strength. During the regular season, they have allowed opponents 18.12 shots per game and 2.40 goals per game. In comparison, Red Wing has allowed their opponents 27.32 shots per game, 4.36 goals. Junior Rory Vesel leads Rochester Lourdes defensemen in scoring with five goals and 21 assists.
The young guys have stepped up to provide the goal scoring for the Eagles. Two freshmen, Alex Funk and Jason Samuelson, lead the team in goals. Funk has 15, Samuelson 13. They have scored four of the team's six playoff goals. Seniors Alex Dewitz (11 goals), Brandon Cheznick (10 goals), and Alex Kurth (9 goals) also provide scoring punch for Lourdes.
Junior Nick Heimer returned for his junior season after appearing as the starter in the Class A state tournament in 2008-2009 as a sophomore. This year, Heimer has shared time in goal with senior Mark Greve. Greve had the better stats in goal. In 11 games, Greve went 7-2-1 with a 1.72 GAA and a .892 save percentage. In 16 games, Nick Heimer went 7-6-1 with a 2.74 GAA and a .857 save percentage. In the playoffs, new Head Coach Josh Spaniol has went with the experienced goaltender, Nick Heimer. Heimer has played all 102 minutes of the two games played and he is 2-0-0 with a 1.00 GAA and a .926 save percentage.
The big question revolving the Section 1A championship is what Red Wing team will show up at Rochester Recreation Center Thursday night.
Prediction: Rochester Lourdes 3, Red Wing 1
________________________________________________________________
Section 2A
Championship
(3) Blake School (18-8-1) vs. (1) Breck School (25-2-0), 7:30PM | Parade Ice Garden
Game notes: The B Schools rivalry continues but this time with one going home and the other moving on to the state tournament.
Breck School won both regular season games by a combined score of 12-2 (7-1, 5-1).
Breck School is loaded and hard to stop. The rivalry will not make a difference. Breck School lost one game this season, 4-3 in overtime, and that was to the only team I think that has a chance to beat them in the state tournament, St. Thomas Academy. They also lost 4-1 to the non-MSHL prep school Shattuck-St. Mary's, the school where Sidney Crosby, Jonathan Toews, and countless other NHL players have gone to. Out of 27 games this season and beyond the two losses, Breck won one game by one goal, two games by two goals, and 22 games were won by three or more goals. No other team can claim that kind of success. In 31 games last year, Breck won 23 games by three goals or more. Breck should tie that 23 game total this year on Thursday night and then break it in the state tournament.
I still think Breck School senior Tyson Fulton should have been a Mr. Hockey Finalist. He tied for third in scoring in the entire state this season and he was third in scoring amongst all juniors in 2008-2009. Fulton has no goals in the playoffs but five assists. He has yet to pick a college.
Nate Traina leads the team in scoring in the playoffs with three goals and four assists. Colorado College recruit Mike Morin has the most goals with four. In two playoff games, eight Breck players have scored goals, five have scored two or more.
Throw out two losses by Breck and a loss to Class AA's #1 team in Minnetonka, Blake School would be 18-5-1. They rely on their strong defense and steady goaltending. They have only given up more than three goals in a game four out of 24 times. You can guess who three out of the four were. The other was, ironically, Thief River Falls, a team that does not score a lot of goals. Blake is 17-1-0 when they hold opponents to 2 goals or less. The bad news is that only one MSHSL Class A school held Breck to less than three goals this season, Rochester Lourdes, and Breck still won 2-1.
Prediction: Breck School 6, Blake School 1
________________________________________________________________
Section 8A
Championship
(2) Thief River Falls (19-7-1) vs. (1) Warroad (23-4-0), 7PM | EGF Civic Center
Game notes: In two games this season, both teams won a game with the same score, 2-1.
If Thief River Falls has a chance to win, they will need to score at least three goals for Zane Gothberg. When Thief River Falls scores three or more goals in a game, they are 15-1-0. When they score less than three goals, they are 4-6-1.
On the other side, Warroad has only been held to two goals or less in a game four times in 27 games. Thief River Falls held Warroad to two or less goals in two out of those four games. Brock Nelson and Brett Hebel both combined to average 2.48 goals per game in 25 regular season games. The rest of the team averaged 2.28 goals per game. In 2 playoff games, Nelson and Hebel are averaging 4.5 goals per game. Nelson alone is averaging 3.5 per playoff game. He leads all other players in the state in scoring in the playoffs at 11 points with seven goals and four assists.
Thief River Falls needs to keep Nelson and Hebel away from the puck, don't let them shoot, and let Gothberg stop the pucks that come his way from the rest of the team. Otherwise, the Warriors will 'be baaack' at the X to contend for another state title.
Prediction: Warroad 3, Thief River Falls 1
